Make your own free website on Tripod.com

JGR Our Online Journal - Uptodate Environmental News from the Cayman Islands and around the Globe.

El Nino and Global Warming - 2007 predicted to be warmest on record - 4 January 2007

Home
Global Warming - First time in History - North Pole Could be Free of Ice this Summer - 26 June 2008
Blue Iguana Breeding Programme Success 11 June 2008
Very Rare and Large Squid (24 lbs 4 oz, 7 ft long) - found off Little Cayman - 20 May 2008
World Outrage on the Cruel and Unjustified Death of Six Grand Cayman Blue Iguanas - 6 May 2008
Coral Reefs And Climate Change: Microbes Could Be The Key To Coral Death - 1 April 2008
Delicate Partnership Between Coral And Algae Threatened By Global Warming - 25 March 2008
Green Iguanas taking over in Grand Cayman - 29 October 2007
Less than 0.001% of Britain's marine environment, home to 44,000 species, is legally protected
John Gray Recyclers Distribute Educational Posters on the Grand Cayman Blue Iguanas - September 2007
JGR Remind Public to Plastic Six Pack Holder Recycle to Preserve the Cayman Islands' environment
The Secret Language of Whales - How it will help with their preservation - 7 March 2007
Iguanas get Royal attention - JGR News - February 2007
Prince Edward visits the Salina Reserve to see the Grand Cayman Blue Iguanas - 4 Feb 2007
Cayman Islands' Dept of Environment's Mangrove Project - 6 February 2007
Global Endangered Species threatened to become extinct without Action - MSN News - January 2007
El Nino and Global Warming - 2007 predicted to be warmest on record - 4 January 2007
Crocodile found in Cayman waters, Old Man Bay, North Side, Grand Cayman - 30 December 2006
Ice Cracks at North Pole - Global Warming - 21 September 2006
Shark that walks on fins is discovered in Indonesia - September 2006
Baby Manatee found in Cayman waters - 4 August 2006
Year 11 John Gray Recyclers Attend Awards Function on Disney Cruise Line - 23 June 2006
Dogs Kill Endangered Blue Iguanas, Botanical Gardens, Grand Cayman - 7 June 2006
Year 11 John Gray Recyclers Win Jiminy Cricket Challenge 2006 - 6 June 2006
John Gray Recyclers have Recycling Global Reach - "Carribean Current" - 1 June 2006
The origins of Cayman's sand - Marnie Laing, Cayman Islands' National Trust - 1 May 2006
Caribbean Coral Threatened by Warming Seas - 24 April 2006
John Gray Recyclers Agape Park Project in the News - 16 February 2006
CaymanNewNews Article on Grand Cayman's Landifll problems following Hurricane Ivan - 18 January 2006
Decline in World Population of Molluscs - 10 January 2006
JGR in the News - Students, businesses get together to help environment - 7 December 2005
UNEP - Global Warming forces Pacific Islanders to move - 6 December 2005
John Gray Recyclers Target Six-pack Holders - 2 December 2005
Cayman Islands Dept of Environmental Health join John Gray Recyclers at Reading Fair - 30 November
Wednesday 30 November marks end of record 2005 hurricane season
Coral Reefs Facing Crisis - 30 November 2005
JGR In the News - Plastic Six-Pack holder Recycling in Grand Cayman - 18 November 2005
JGR Blog - Grand Cayman Cruise berthing a top issue - 10 November 2005
JGR Blog - Land fill on Grand Cayman running short - 9 November 2005
JGR Blog - Cayman's Blue Dragons get worldwide coverage - 8 November 2005
JGR Blog - Wilma causes Cruise Numbers Concern on Grand Cayman - 20,158 due on one day - 7 Nov 05
JGR Blog - Mexico's Coral Reefs may take up to 100 years to heal after Wilma - 5 November 2005
JGR Blog - Turtle release in Grand Cayman choppy but cheerful - 3 November 2005
JGR Blog - Migrant Masked Booby blown to Grand Cayman by Wilma is successfully released - 3 Nov 2005
JGR Blog - Bleaching threatens Coral Reefs - 3 November 2005
JGR Blog - Cayman Islands' Turtles survive wild Wilma - 1 November 2005
JGR Blog - Erosion a major problem from Hurricane Wilma - Cayman Islands - 1 November 2005
JGR Blog - Iggy Supports Recycling at School Fair - 27 October 2005
JGR Blog - Blue Iguana Rescued - 26 October 2005
JGR Blog - IUCN Article on Climate Change Destruction of World's Coral Reefs - 25 October 2005
JGR Blog - Cayman Islands' Conch/Whelk Season starts 1 November and closes on 30 April 2006
JGR Blog - Turtle Tracking of Cayman Islands' Turtles - 24 October 2005
JGR Blog - School Club Fair - September 2005
JGR Blog - Important Cayman Islands' Recycling Information from C I Dept of Environmental Health
JGR Blog - 14 November 2003 - We've got the Baby Blues
JGR Blog - 25 October 2003 - Our Rap and our Float in the Pirates' Week Float Parade
JGR Blog - 19 - 23 October 2003 - the Blue Iguana Programme of the Cayman Islands' National Trust
JGR Blog 29 Sept - 3 Oct 2003 - We continue to track our Grand Cayman turtles in Central America
JGR Blog 22 - 26 Sept 2003 - Tracking our Grand Cayman Sea Turtles
JGR Blog - 18 Sept 2003 - John Gray High School Club Fair
JGR Blog - 15 - 19 Sept 2003 - Opening of Stephen Jared Youth Centre
Contact Us
2007 to be 'warmest on record'
Sunbathers (Image: Getty)
Last year was the warmest on record in the UK, Met Office figures show
The world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007, the UK's Met Office says.

An extended warming period, resulting from an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, will probably push up global temperatures, experts forecast.

They say there is a 60% chance that the average surface temperature will match or exceed the current record from 1998.

The scientists also revealed that 2006 saw the highest average temperature in the UK since records began in 1914.

The global surface temperature is projected to be 0.54C (0.97F) above the long-term average of 14C (57F), beating the current record of 0.52C (0.94F), which was set in 1998.

The annual projection was compiled by the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia.

El Nino effect

Chris Folland, head of the Hadley Centre's climate variability research, said the forecast was primarily based on two factors.

The first was greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, he said.

"This is a statistical method; it is a number that represents the heating of the atmosphere.

"Greenhouse gases cause heating, while aerosols cause cooling," Professor Folland told BBC News.

"The other factor which allows us to make a forecast that whether one year is significantly different from the next is the effect of the El Nino."

Image showing an El Nino event from 1998 (Image: Nasa)

El Nino events are marked by the arrival of unusually warm waters off the north-western coast of South America, and are described as the largest influence on the year-to-year variability of the Earth's climate.

This year's potential to be a record breaker is linked to a moderate strength El Nino already established in the Pacific Ocean.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that it was expected to continue into the first quarter of this year, which would have a knock-on effect.

"There is a big lag between the El Nino and the warming of global temperatures - it takes about four months or perhaps a bit longer," Professor Folland explained.

"We have two methods of forecasting the effect of the El Nino. One is a statistical method based on two patterns of sea surface temperatures in the El Nino region, and the other is a complex mathematical model."

He said that the forecast was then fine-tuned by looking back over data from the previous 50 years.

"We have actually run this forecast three times, updating it every month... and it is completely stable."


 
 

The 60% probability that 2007 would set a new record meant that it "was more likely than not", he concluded.

The Hadley Centre has been issuing the annual forecast for the past seven years and says it has just a 0.06C margin of error.

In December, the WMO released provisional data on the global average surface temperature for 2006. It estimated that last year was 0.42C (0.75F) above the 1961-1990 average, making it the sixth warmest on record.

However, the UK experienced the warmest year on record in 2006, according to Met Office figures released alongside the global forecast.

The meteorologists said the mean temperature for the year was 9.7C (49.5F), 1.1C (2F) above the long-term average, based on the period between 1971-2000.

Temp  difference (degrees C) from long-term average